October 2007 Archives

I have posted an analysis on BusinessGeek my analysis of whether Facebook is worth $15B, and whether Microsoft cares.  As previously, I will give you the summary and let you decide if you are interested in the detail.

Considering it is already making a good profit (or any profit) of $30M, a $15B valuation is not too much of a stretch mathematically.  If we take a risk adverse pay-back period of 15 years, then a 44%pa growth rate is required.  This is not difficult to achieve in technology.  What is missing to make this valuation valid, is a track record of profit growth and proof that Facebook is sustainable and not just a brief fad.

Microsoft don’t care though.  If they buy a stake in Facebook they are almost certain to win their ads away from whoever they use now, which could easily pay for their investment in a relatively short time.  It also allows them to block other companies from getting involved by giving Facebook a high value.  If Facebook turns out to be the next Google, Microsoft already have a piece.  For the potential benefits, $500M is a low risk figure for Microsoft.

First and foremost again this year I was overwhelmed by the number of listeners that stopped in and saw me at the RawVoice booth. Several of you brought me small gifts and I was completely blown away by that.

Thank you as you truly are a great part of the Geek News Central Ohana. I will be talking about the show on my show tomorrow and will have a special guest on the show as well.

The team at RawVoice did a great job at the Podcast and New Media Expo. The booth activities and business leads will keep us busy for several months, all the new friendships we made along with the friends we were able to catch up with was really terrific.

As I write this sitting in the Airport in California all I can really think about at this point is getting some extra sleep on the way home. More on PNME later.

Todd.

Back from Podcast Expo lots to talk. Major jet Lag tonight and my energy battery is on low.

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Full Show Notes

If you are interested in this trial, keep an eye on Ars Technica this week. They are giving this daily coverage, the first days wrapup already posted.

The beginning has been predictable, with RIAA witnesses banging on about how much piracy costs them. The defence tactic to date seems to be around questioning the methods the RIAA uses to gather their information, and whether they can offer conclusive proof.

It has taken nearly 3 years for Microsoft to get in the Podcasting game but it appears that the new Zune is going to be able to sync and download podcast via Wifi at home while connected to the home network.

We have no confirmation yet whether the older Zune's are going to get the same update and have the same functionality.

This is one step short of perfection all is needed now is some additional software and the Zune will be able to update podcast anytime it connects to a Wifi connection.

I am pretty happy that Microsoft is finally figuring out the new media is an important part of most digital content consumers. This may also lower the barriers some in making people realize that they can consume Podcasts aka new media without a iPod.

The simple fact that one can sync over the air though is a huge improvement no need for cables. You can have your Zune in any part of your home and the unit can receive updates. www.alleyinsider.com

A lawsuit brought by a blind student against Target alleging that their web-site is not properly accessible has become a class action.  From the commentary I have read, the main reason that the site is hard to access with screen reading software is the lack of alt attributes for images on the site.  The alt attribute is used to give a text descriptor to images, it not only helps people using screen reading software, it also helps search engines understand your content.  You can read more about it here if you are interested.

Regardless of the outcome this case will increase the thought that large companies put into design of their web-site, but there may be impacts for the wider community as well.  I am sure that Target did not intentionally disenfranchise a segment of their market, they more likely took a coding shortcut.  It is best practice to apply descriptors to your images and to not do so is a coding error.  Depending on how this plays out, it is possible that Target could be found liable for a coding error, which comes under the general category of a software bug.

If there is a legal ruling of liability for software bugs won’t that open a can of worms?

Reports from the Capitol v Thomas case are starting to come in with the jury awarding $220,000 to the record companies. There is no mention of an appeal yet, but one would assume this is inevitable.

An interesting fact that came up in the trial was that Thomas was a very large consumer of legal music. This backs up what has been said for years, that the recording industry is sueing their biggest customers. Expecting the recording industry to get their heads out of the sand at this point is a pipe dream.

We have Cherie from the Cheriecast.com as the guest on the show for the first 15 minutes or so and then and really full show content with some soapbox time as well.

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Extended Show Notes

I have made no secret of my opinion that DRM does nothing to limit illegal copying.  Non-circumvention and usability are incompatible goals.  What DRM does is seriously inconvenience users.  The nefarious can get around whatever is there, and the honest user gets their use of the product compromised.

The copy protection on Blu Ray and HD-DVD, AACS, is the most restrictive DRM to date, and not surprisingly is starting to show the inherent compromise between protection and usability.  One of the sneaky little things in AACS is the hardware specific key, if a particular piece of hardware loses its ‘certification’ as a trusted source, it can be disabled by the key update that happens every time you insert a new disk.  So lets say you have an ACME brand HD-DVD5000, and it gets found to have a bug that is letting hackers use it to break codes on disks, the AACS Licensing Administrator can update the decryption keys.  Anyone with an ACME 5000 who uses one of these updated discs will find their drive bricked.

Even if this is never used the presence of the code opens the door for flaky behavior which shows the fight between convenience and protection.  Two Blu-ray titles have reported playback problems.  On certain players they will play badly, or not play at all.  This fault is due to the DRM and the solution is likely to be a firmware update for the affected players.  When was the last time you had to upgrade your DVD player firmware to play the latest NetFlix delivery?

I will continue to vote with my money, and stay out of this market all together.  I predict that the restrictive, complicated, expensive and flaky implementations of HD video will open the gate for a 3^rd player.

I was working on a reply piece to an article on Publishing 2.0 that claims that Facebook has no use for business.  I absolutely disagree with this and while I was listing out the reasons why a Facebook style platform would be brilliant in a business situation (found on BusinessGeek if you are interested), two things popped into my head

1. The back-end application I was describing sounded a lot like Microsoft Sharepoint with a better front-end
2. This story from earlier in the week where Steve Ballmer claims Facebook is a fad, even though he values it at $10 Billion.

It clicked into place what MS wants a stake in Facebook for.  In an earlier posts on GNC and BG, I talked about them wanting either technology, a business contract, or a denial of these to other companies.  I am now confident that what they want is access to Facebook IP.

I now expect to see a Facebook like interface on MS Sharepoint in the near future, possibly with extra integration into other MS applications.  They will either be getting some code from Facebook to help achieve this quickly, or will be licensing whatever patents they may have to prevent costly litigation in the future.  Knowing Microsoft’s history they have probably already done a lot of due process on the strength of the Facebook patent holdings.

Declan McCullagh from CNet has dug up an interesting FCC filing from a DC freelance writer.  Gail Mortenson has requested the FCC to mandate e-mail portability, meaning that if you switched email provider they would be forced to forward any emails to your new email address.  As if email doesn’t sometimes already have trouble getting through clogged relays and spam filters, just imagine if your email was coming through a number of forwarding services, all of them under the control of companies you had told where to shove their email.

Declan does a good job of explaining why this is a ludicrous proposal, worth a read.  It boggles the mind though, how self centered people can be that they would think a company that offers them a free or incredibly cheap service should be beholden to keep giving her service after she leaves them.  I don’t think AOL should be paying her alimony after their email relationship breaks down. 

If she came to GNC she could use one of Todd’s codes to get a great GoDaddy deal on a domain name and email forwarding.

If you are you simply need to read this, and if you still don’t get it, then start planning what career you're going to have next. Unless you change, your company will be DOA. www.fistfulayen.com

Murphy Law Strikes again but the show must go on, I catch you up on the quest for a new home and a pile of good tech news and information

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Extended Full Show Notes Here

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R&D magazine has posted its list of the top 10 inventions of 2007, and there is some really cool stuff going on out there. My favorite by far is the biomedical sensor, which can take some blood tests without taking your blood. You just touch it to the skin and it can detect the levels of compounds in the blood without puncture marks. Can a tricorder be far away?

I also got a chuckle out of the comment stream, but not in a good way. The commenting people, after reading about new ways to detect chemical threats, astounding leaps in medical technology, tools to control the spread of superbugs etc, find the only thing they can find
to discuss is the absence on the list of the iPhone. If I need to refer to this overhyped device again I will be referring to it as the iWord, as I am reaching the point where any mention of it makes me curse.

I am overstating for comedic effect of course, but the obsession level of iFans is sometimes worthy of humour.

Linus Torvalds has apparently been frustrated with the collective approach to producing code, with a group of security researchers.  According to the security researchers nothing less than perfect security is acceptable, and they believe that having multiple security options means that a security module manager (LSM) cannot be removed, which is a theoretical security hole.

This is always a problem with development teams, when you spend a lot of effort and brain power coming up with a solution to a problem it is natural to get emotionally invested in it.  These type of fights tend to be inevitable at this point.  I am expecting that there will be some FUD flying after this about the ‘dangers of open source development, but in reality I view this as a example of strength in the model.

All development groups (and I mean all) have these arguments, the only difference with this one is that it is in the open.  In these situations a good leader is needed to make what is the optimal decision with no perfect answer and Linus is doing this admirably.  Sometimes the ‘boffins’ need a reality check as well.  This is a common and healthy development process, and the fact that it occurs under public scrutiny means the person making the decision knows that they are publicly responsible.  I much prefer this method than the politically expedient method that is more likely if the decision is behind closed doors.

If you are interested in the complete email chain its here.  Turn your geek dial up to 11 before attempting it though.

I have been asking people I meet that have an iPhone what they think about the latest movements by Apple to keep the iPhone locked down tight. Most have responded that they really are not happy with Apple!

When I push further and ask them if they think the main reason Apple is locking the phone down is that they are trying to ensure that those that pay to play are the only companies that get apps on iPhone? The answers I get are varied but most agree as well.

The iPhone is no different than the majority of phones launched in the United States. From here on out those that have big fat wallets are the only companies that will be able to afford to license applications for the iPhone. Plus those applications are usually tied to commercial pay to play services. In this case which Apple will get a cut of.

It is obvious that Nokia is trying to do the right thing with the Nokia N95 They have been successful in generating major buzz about the phone and I think I am going to go ahead and buy one and ebay my unlocked iPhone on ebay.

Apple also has to make sure AT&T is happy by keeping the phone locked. My prediction is that sales will slow on the iPhone and the early adopters will be much more unlikely to early adopt and purchase products from Apple again. Engadget

As all of you that have been reading for a while remember the past two years I have traversed the halls of CES looking for the coolest gadgets. Andy McCaskey from Slashdot Review and yours truly are once again on the hunt for a sponsor to the show.

Going to CES is not a small endeavor, and the cost of the hotel rooms alone is enough to make a grown man cry. But I have put together a sponsorship package that will provide great ROI for the sponsor while at the same time give us enough resources to produce daily video briefings and allow for more than 100 interviews and demos to be released over several weeks following the show.

Last year Hitachi sponsored us, and while you do not have to be a big corporate company we would be happy to talk with any company that is interested.

Some statistics from the 2007 coverage. Total Videos produced 107. Single most watched video generated 385,000 viewer views. Lowest number of views of any CES video produced was 24,081 with a grand total of 11,454,501 combined views and downloads. Number of combined Audio Podcast Produced during the show 7

If you are interested in sponsoring the team from Geek News Central and the team from Slashdot Review drop me a line at geeknews@gmail.com

Except for Robert Scoble, and of course Jason Calacanis, most of the commentary I see about Google is that their search position is unassailable.  Considering how relatively young they are as a company, and how they sprang from nowhere to command a market that others thought could not be taken I don’t know why people would consider this to be true.  Google won against the geeks favorite Alta Vista (helped by DEC mismanagment) and the force of Microsoft’s entry to the Internet (helped by the poor strategy of trying to create a separate web).  It needs a good idea and excellent execution to take a market from an established and dominant player, or some mis-steps from the establishment.

I was interested to see yet another report of an influential Google staffer quitting.  Now no company will fall from the resignation of one person, but if the right people leave, and the wrong people get promoted then the company can suffer.  Microsoft suffered from this for a period in the 90’s with some of the ‘Microsoft Millionaires’ that were developers promoted to management engaging in destructive empire building and infighting.  As companies get larger it is harder to innovate, and talented employees find it harder to be recognized and engage in work that is meaningful to them.  This eventually creates a brain drain on the company and releases people with the power to create better ways of doing things into the world.

Robert Cringely wrote predicting this very phenomena earlier this year and each new resignation of a top Google person makes it more likely he is right.

The hacker battle continues fix is in for 1.1.1 version iPhone and iBrick Phones. Please help us raise $400.00 to give a laptop to a child!

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Full Show Notes

Who are they kidding. I half laughed this morning when reading the referenced article in BusinessWeek. Seems the chair of Universal Music is enlisting the help of other music companies to roll their own music service.

Ok lets look at a music service being run by recording companies and the list of features it will have.

• DRM
• High Prices
• DRM
• DRM

The way they think the can beat Apple iTunes is to sell music as a subscription service and have the music service some default with media non apple media players and mobile devices. Time will tell if they can compete but unless they can beat Apple with new portable media devices they are simply not going to be able to compete. BusinessWeek.com

Blogging is a powerful thing it can cause those of us on the fence to make a decision one way or the other on using a service in this instances that service is an airline.

Over the past 2–3 years I have had my issues with American Airlines as well. My issues were similar to Dave Winer and since I was flying a lot of International flights as well as domestic with them. It always seemed the domestic crews had this screw you attitude, while the International flight seemed to have better crews and agents.

It came to a head on a flight to Dallas out of Honolulu in 2005 when I had a confirmed business seat that I had booked six weeks in advance that ended up being given to another customer for an unexplained reason, and I was bumped back into coach. While they did refund me money it was the worst customer service experience I have ever had.

I rarely fly business class because it is just to expensive, but their are times when schedules on the other side of the pound require I try to be as rested as possible as most flights out of Honolulu are redeye flights.

I was near the top of their totem pole with their AAdvantage Frequent Flyer plan and although we have used all of our miles with them since that incident we have not paid for another ticket on American Airlines since.

I can see that American has not changed their ways much in the past couple of years and Dave’s experience reaffirms my commitment to continue to not fly their airline. When you make a customer angry repeatedly and treat them like trash do not expect them to come back and be a customer anytime soon. Scripting.com

Over the past two months we have had a Indian development firm under contract to develop for us a shopping cart that we were going to roll out over a month ago.

The experience with this firm has been less than positive. We charted out how long the job would take and expected it to be a 2 to 3 week job tops and what we have after two months is a shopping cart that needs a lot of clean up work.

Issues we faced with this Indian firm included promising we would have senior developer from the start but our guess is that the developer they assigned to us had a year of experience if we were lucky. At week 4 I put the hammer on them and they assigned some more knowledgeable but he spent the next 2 weeks cleaning up the code the first developer had mangled.

It was a truly terrible experience and while we got the product we largely wanted it was not at the speed we would have expected. We probably saved a couple of thousand dollars at the expense of the shopping cart taking 2 months when it should have taken 3 weeks.

My recommendation to anyone looking to hire Hidden Brains is to have very low expectations. They talk a big talk but fail to be able to operate at a competency level that I would expect.

Deficiencies

• Code is not up to par with Current Standards
• Several Security issues were discovered in the code
• The programmer did not understand functionality of many libraries
• English comprehension was really sub-par
• Basic things like working with Subversion was unknown

While the company may be able to do basic web designs they in my opinion can not be relied up to work with companies that are looking to integrate features into existing code design.

That being said I am again on the hunt for another PHP Developer that can web integration and design. If you have a strong working knowledge of PHP and can speak English we want to hire you. Examples of previous work will be required and interview with my lead developer will be required. Send email to ceo@rawvoice.com

We all know that Microsoft has been trying unsuccessfully for years to knock Google from its dominant search position.  From the early versions of MSN search, to forcing default search to MSN on IE and changing branding to Live, Microsoft have struggled to make a dent in the Google spot.  Recently they have been trying to get into the ad-sense market as well, including offering big incentives to some popular sites to entice them to MS (e.g. Digg).

Recently I have been seeing the number of referrals I see from Live Search increasing across all the sites I see stats for, which doesn’t include GNC, but the three personal domains I run, my day job company’s main site and the customer forum I am an admin on.  I have seen live search referrals grow from very little in July, into the top 20 referring domains for all sites in August, and in late Sept has grown to be about half the rate of Google and leaving yahoo in the dust.

My assumption is that this is due to the September 26 update to Live search.  It claims that the engine drives much better relevance, which could definitely explain why more results would be seen on site logs.  One point on the announcement that caught my eye was

Streamlined look and feel.  We focused on the end-to-end experience from the homepage throughout the site.  For example, search results are now easier to read thanks to work on typography, contrast, colors and spacing.

What they meant to say was, “We made it look exactly like Google!”

Seriously, if you haven’t looked at live search recently, it is now a virtual copy of Google.  The front page is virtually identical Live, Google.  And even the layout, design, highlighting and options are the same Live, Google.

It will be interesting to see whether the results this drive for Microsoft are temporary, or will give permanent results.  While this is not the most virtuous competition tactic they could use, their lawyers must believe it is legal.  If successful it would mean that Google’s share price would need to be re-evaluated.

A group of researchers at the Information Sciences Institute have conducted what they are calling a census of the Internet.  The methodology they used for this was to ping each address in turn and map out the type of responses they received.  In the end they don’t seem to have received much at all with only 4.4% of addresses responding to a ping.  They started this project in 2003.

This has not prevented them from producing a snazzy “map” and a research paper.  Now I feel bad saying it given that they have spent so much time on it, but this data is virtually useless, given that the results only show a response, positive or negative, from a host.  Their data shows that there are about 180 million active hosts, with that number including servers.  If we look at some alternative Internet usage statistics though, we see there are actually more like 1.2 Billion users, and then business users on top of that.

If this study gathered more information about the hosts then there would be a big enough sample size to have a high confidence in the data. Given their purpose was to calculate how many IP addresses were active, getting 10% of the number you would expect means there is a significant hole in the methodology.  I think they realise this at some level given the weasel words in the paper, for example in the abstract “..there is much to be learned..” and in the Introduction “Yet there is much to be learned..” while the results and conclusion offer no information beyond a conjectured trend in firewall usage and some motherhood statements about their methodology “..broaden[ing] the field of Internet measurements..”

I hope they revise their methodology from scratch if they intend to produce further iterations of this study.

As a 43 year old entrepreneur whose primary skills in life up to three years ago was working in advanced electronics in the United States Navy, you would not think I would get the startup bug.

My family has always been in business for themselves and I have sold and or had a stake in several companies in the past. When podcasting hit the scene in 2004, I knew by things happening in the space that there were several good business models that could be applied to the New Media space.

The original TechPodcasts.com COOP model (not what it is today) did not work out well, as people wanted the rewards but few were willing to put in the work.

This led me to form RawVoice in a more traditional model and luckily was able to put together a hell of a core team. Like any business, we have added and lost a few people along the way which has been a learning experience in itself, but we continue to have people that understand and actively participate in the space.

The core team at the time we got started almost all had jobs, homes, families etc. Two members of the team were single with one scheduled to get married and in the middle of buying a home. As we explored our options we decided to build the company virtually because none of us could have survived financially without at least a base salary coming in.

A lot of people told us to quit our day jobs and move to Silicon Valley. Easy for someone to say when there are bills to pay and kids to feed. In my situation at least, this was not at all possible as I was obliged to be in the Navy till Oct 2007.

As cash flow increased, we were able to bring Angelo our lead developer on full time in mid 2007, which has allowed us to speed up our development cycle.

In May of 2007 we were approached, and nearly acquired by an east coast company, After visiting the company in person and having some internal discussions we decided that the deal was not in the best interest of the company and we walked away from the deal.

That was a tough thing to do but we made a decision that was absolutely was the right choice. Today RawVoice as a company is stronger than ever, and we understand that we are in the space for the long haul.

From the beginning we were told you have to move to Silicon Valley. I am positive had we done so that we would probably would have two or three divorces within the company and we would probably no longer exist.

Building a company where each team member is essentially tele-commuting can be a challenge, but hey--we are a technology company and we use technology. Between the Phone, VOIP, IM, Skype, Collaborative Software, Revision Control and central repository for corporate documents, the office infrastructure is no different than if we were all huddled together in a shitty apartment someplace in Silicon Valley.

Do we lose productivity? Probably a little, but guess what ? Everyone is sane and we are fortunate that we can still maintain our local support structure, and we can build this company at the pace we set. That pace has been pretty aggressive with a large percentage of it happening while we all had full time jobs, kids, college and a host of other things that happen in life.

I am sure if I was 20 years old with no kids or wife. I would have probably packed up and moved to Silicon Valley, but sometimes you just don’t have those choices, and while I have Team members in Colorado, Ohio, Michigan, New York and Hawaii we all work as a well -greased machine and everyone is happy.

We are not under any pressure by any outside source. At the same time, we are making our internal goals and putting a hell of a lot of money in the New Media creators' pockets that we support. Our software-as-a-service business with the RawVoice Generator and RawVoice Statistics white label service is gaining traction.

Because we are in this business for the long haul we can survive a lot longer than other companies in the space, and we can adapt and change as needed while other companies face tremendous pressure from their venture investors.

As long as we stick to the fundamentals we started with, the value of the company will continue to grow. When customers are exposed to the technology side of what we have built, they are pretty amazed! As I tell people, we have 2 plus full years of code development in a New Media platform that is unlike any others, and for that and the advertising media side of the business we could not be happier to have done it on our own outside of Silicon Valley.

Cory Doctorow has an interesting point about the growing difficulty we all have dealing with the sheer amount of information we have access to.  With notices from Facebook friends, Digg hot sites, delicious feeds, twitter and RSS subscriptions, email, etc, the amount of information at our fingertips is huge and growing. 

We develop our own heuristics to determine at a quick glance whether a particular piece of information is likely to be relevant enough to warrant closer examination.  This helps to manage the load but does not ensure that we are getting all we could from our information.  Cory puts it well, stating that our determination of relevance is probabilistic rather that deterministic.  By definition this means relevant information will fall through the cracks and some dross will still get in.

The easy way to deal with this is to go with the group-think, and this is unfortunately where some of the more popular sites can be as bad for us as they can be good.  As sites get big enough to generate revenue and build value and staff, the trap of necessity is set.  These sites need more and more to ensure the continuation of their revenue flow above innovation.  There is nothing evil in this and it is no different from any other company.  It remains though that there is a tenancy for information sources to become more conservative in their scope as they grow.

The nature of Blogging and other new media provides the antidote to this though.  Unlike traditional media, the barriers to entry are virtually non-existent.  I started my blog with a $10 domain name and a $20 hosting plan, and I could have used an online blog for free, the only other cost is my time.  This ease of entry forces the larger sites to avoid the conservative trap otherwise others will quickly rise to fill the gaps left behind.

I have been using a new RSS reader recently (BlogBridge) which has been helping me deal with the information flow.  It has moderated subject guides that include more than the well known sites which helps me to find new content sources.  It then has a personal rating system that allows me to flag when I see a good article in a feed and build a partially automatic heuristic, there is also automatic features to this I am yet to fully explore.  There is still much greater scope to improve the sorting of our information sources though.

Monster show it really is a pile of new tonight and a equal number of voice mails and email comments. I am going to start calling you the most engaged audience in podcasting.

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